一本道理不卡一二三区

Coding that led to lockdown was 'totally unreliable' and a 'buggy mess', say experts

The code, written by Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London, was impossible to read, scientists claim

Neil Ferguson
Neil Ferguson was one of the key architects behind the Imperial model

The Covid-19 modelling that sent Britain into lockdown, shutting the economy and leaving millions unemployed, has been slammed by a series of experts.

Professor Neil Ferguson's computer coding was derided as “totally unreliable” by leading figures, who warned it was “something you wouldn’t stake your life on".

The model, credited with forcing the Government to make a U-turn and introduce a nationwide lockdown, is a “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming”, says David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco.

“In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.”

一本道理不卡一二三区The comments are likely to reignite a row over whether the UK was right to send the public into lockdown, with conflicting scientific models having suggested people may have already acquired substantial herd immunity and that Covid-19 may have hit Britain earlier than first thought. Scientists have also been split on what the fatality rate of Covid-19 is, which has resulted in vastly different models.

一本道理不卡一二三区Up until now, though, significant weight has been attached to Imperial's model, which placed the fatality rate higher than others and predicted that 510,000 people in the UK could die without a lockdown.

It was said to have prompted a dramatic change in policy from the Government, causing businesses, schools and restaurants to be shuttered immediately in March. The Bank of England has predicted that the economy could take a year to return to normal, after facing its worst recession for more than three centuries.  

一本道理不卡一二三区The Imperial model works by using code to simulate transport links, population size, social networks and healthcare provisions to predict how coronavirus would spread. However, questions have since emerged over whether the model is accurate, after researchers released the code behind it, which in its original form was “thousands of lines” developed over more than 13 years.

一本道理不卡一二三区In its initial form, developers claimed the code had been unreadable, with some parts looking “like they were machine translated from Fortran”, an old coding language, according to John Carmack, an American developer, who helped clean up the code before it was published online. Yet, the problems appear to go much deeper than messy coding.

Many have claimed that it is almost impossible to reproduce the same results from the same data, using the same code. Scientists from the University of Edinburgh reported such an issue, saying they got different results when they used different machines, and even in some cases, when they used the same machines.  

一本道理不卡一二三区“There appears to be a bug in either the creation or re-use of the network file. If we attempt two completely identical runs, only varying in that the second should use the network file produced by the first, the results are quite different,” the Edinburgh researchers wrote on the Github file.

一本道理不卡一二三区After a discussion with one of the Github developers, a fix was later provided. This is said to be one of a number of bugs discovered within the system. The Github developers explained this by saying that the model is “stochastic”, and that “multiple runs with different seeds should be undertaken to see average behaviour”.

However, it has prompted questions from specialists,一本道理不卡一二三区 who say “models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same results given the same initial set of parameters...otherwise, there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable.”

It comes amid a wider debate over whether the Government should have relied more heavily on numerous models before making policy decisions.

Writing for nuggetsbasketballteamshop.com, Sir Nigel Shadbolt, Principal at Jesus College, said that “having a diverse variety of models, particularly those that enable policymakers to explore predictions under different assumptions, and with different interventions, is incredibly powerful”.

Like the Imperial code, a rival model by Professor Sunetra Gupta at Oxford University works on a so-called "SIR approach" in which the population is divided into those that are susceptible, infected and recorded. However, while Gupta made the assumption that 0.1pc of people infected with coronavirus would die, Ferguson placed that figure at 0.9pc.

That led to a dramatic reversal in government policy from attempting to build “herd immunity” to a full-on lockdown. Experts remain baffled as to why the government appeared to dismiss other models.

“We’d be up in arms if weather forecasting was based on a single set of results from a single model and missed taking that umbrella when it rained,” says Michael Bonsall, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Oxford University.

一本道理不卡一二三区Concerns, in particular, over Ferguson’s model have been raised, with Konstantin Boudnik, vice-president of architecture at WANdisco, saying his track record in modelling doesn’t inspire confidence. 

一本道理不卡一二三区In the early 2000s, Ferguson’s models incorrectly predicted up to 136,000 deaths from mad cow disease, 200 million from bird flu and 65,000 from swine flu.

“The facts from the early 2000s are just yet another confirmation that their modeling approach was flawed to the core,” says Dr Boudnik. “We don't know for sure if the same model/code was used, but we clearly see their methodology wasn't rigourous then and surely hasn't improved now.”

A spokesperson for the Imperial College COVID19 Response Team said: “The UK Government has never relied on a single disease model to inform decision-making. As has been repeatedly stated, decision-making around lockdown was based on a consensus view of the scientific evidence, including several modelling studies by different academic groups.

“Multiple groups using different models concluded that the pandemic would overwhelm the NHS and cause unacceptably high mortality in the absence of extreme social distancing measures. Within the Imperial research team we use several models of differing levels of complexity, all of which produce consistent results. We are working with a number of legitimate academic groups and technology companies to develop, test and further document the simulation code referred to. However, we reject the partisan reviews of a few clearly ideologically motivated  commentators.

“Epidemiology is not a branch of computer science and the conclusions  around lockdown rely not on any mathematical model but on the scientific consensus that COVID-19 is a highly transmissible virus with an infection fatality ratio exceeding 0.5pc in the UK.”

1024最新手机在线观看-一本道理不卡一二三区 一受两攻有双龙入菊_耽美肉嗨从头做到尾_两个攻同时进入双性受 55we韩国女主播免费视频-一本道理不卡一二三区 日本xnxnxnxnxn拍拍-一本道理不卡一二三区 用茄子捅自己下面视频_茄子视频在线观看 369看369看片你懂得电影-一本道理不卡一二三区 4438最新全国免费视频网-一本道理不卡一二三区 中文字幕在线在线亚洲_中文字幕在线视频 电影 一道本无吗dⅤd在线播放一区-宅男免费毛片手机在线 正在播放母息子友人犯_正在播放中文字幕母息子_友人の母系列在线播放 1024手机在线基地播放-一本道理不卡一二三区 依人在线 依人在线手机在线观看依人在线在线视频|依人在线最新网址 在线a 在线a发布网|在线a在线电影|在线a.com|日韩在线a 伊人久久精品视频在线,伊人久久精品视频在线免费观看,伊人久久精品视频在线 222eee野鸡网视频2区-一本道理不卡一二三区 一本之道高清在线观看在线视频_一本之道高清在线观看手机观看_日韩一本之道高清在线观看影院 猫咪在线播放maomi99伊人-一本道理不卡一二三区 2017夜夜橾天天橾在线视频-一本道理不卡一二三区 在线a 免费 在线a 免费在线视频_在线a 免费手机在线观看_在线a 免费电影 一本之道高清在线观看-一本之道高清在线观看一区-日本一本au道大尺码专区 00后艺校萝莉14部资源-一本道理不卡一二三区 快猫vip破解版apk宅男-一本道理不卡一二三区 人碰xoo在线视频永久免费-一本道理不卡一二三区 曰本一大免费高清2020,俄罗斯日本一级a大片,日本特级2020免观视频 wwのpornhubのcom-一本道理不卡一二三区 2000影院m3u8免费高清-一本道理不卡一二三区 伊人狼人在线观看视频,免费资源在线观看2020,日本无吗无卡v清免费 手机能直接看的网站2019-一本道理不卡一二三区 樱桃网站视频官网/私人樱桃影院/樱桃视频入口网址 xvldeos免费中文视频-一本道理不卡一二三区